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تحلیل پویایی تابآوری زنجیره تامین واکسن تحت اختلالات ناشی از جهشهای ویروسی و شیوع سایر اپیدمیها | ||
| مدیریت زنجیره ارزش راهبردی | ||
| دوره 2، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 5، مرداد 1404، صفحه 85-115 اصل مقاله (962.37 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/svcm.2025.38639.1038 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| الناز برجی خانقشلاقی1؛ علیرضا پویا* 2؛ زهرا ناجی عظیمی3؛ فرزاد دهقانیان4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| 3استاد گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| 4دانشیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 20 مرداد 1404، تاریخ بازنگری: 24 شهریور 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 02 مهر 1404 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: این مطالعه با هدف بررسی چالشهای حیاتی در زنجیره تأمین واکسن آنفلوانزا، از جمله عدم تعادل عرضه و تقاضا، افزایش تقاضا بهدلیل شیوع بیماری کووید-۱۹ و ظهور سویههای جدید ویروسی انجام شده است. تحقیق حاضر به ارزیابی تابآوری زنجیره تأمین در استان خراسان رضوی، ایران، با تمرکز بر اختلالات ناشی از پیکهای فصلی به دلیل جهشهای ویروسی و شیوع بیماریهای جدید میپردازد. هدف نهایی این مطالعه، توسعه و ارزیابی استراتژیهای مؤثر برای افزایش تابآوری زنجیره تأمین و تضمین تأمین پایدار و ایمن واکسن است. روش: در این پژوهش از رویکرد پویایی سیستم برای شبیهسازی اختلالات زنجیره تأمین و فرآیندهای بازیابی استفاده شده است. برای نخستین بار، استراتژیهای تابآوری شامل ایجاد بافرهای پشتیبان، عقد قرارداد با تأمینکنندگان پشتیبان و افزایش ظرفیت تولید داخلی، در چارچوب سیاستهای تخصیص بودجه بهصورت جامع تحلیل شدهاند. یافتهها: نتایج نشان میدهد که سیاستهای متمرکز بر افزایش ظرفیت تولید داخلی، بهویژه سیاست سوم که تولید داخلی را با تأمینکنندگان پشتیبان و حداقل بافرهای پشتیبان ترکیب میکند، به طور قابل توجهی پایداری زنجیره تأمین را ارتقاء میبخشد. این سیاستها تعادلی بهینه میان هزینهها و پاسخگویی به نوسانات تقاضا ایجاد میکنند. نتیجهگیری: یافتهها حاکی از آن است که افزایش ظرفیت تولید داخلی همراه با بهرهگیری از تأمینکنندگان پشتیبان، ضمن ایجاد تعادل میان هزینهها و موجودی واکسن، میتواند پایداری بلندمدت زنجیره تأمین واکسن آنفلوانزا را حتی در شرایط اوج تقاضای ناشی از جهشهای ویروسی تضمین کند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| زنجیره تامین واکسن آنفولانزا؛ عدم قطعیت تقاضا؛ پویایی سیستم اختلال؛ تاب آوری | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Dynamic resilience analysis of the vaccine supply chain under disruptions caused by viral mutations and outbreaks of other epidemics | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Elnaz borji-khangheshlaghi1؛ Alireza Poya2؛ Zahra Naji-Azimi3؛ Farzad Dehghanian4 | ||
| 1Ph.D. students, Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 3Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. | ||
| 4Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Background and Objectives: This study aims to investigate critical challenges in the influenza vaccine supply chain, including supply–demand imbalances, increased demand due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the emergence of new viral strains. The research evaluates the resilience of the supply chain in Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, focusing on disruptions caused by seasonal peaks resulting from viral mutations and the spread of new diseases. The ultimate goal is to develop and assess effective strategies to enhance supply chain resilience and ensure a stable and secure vaccine supply. Materials and Methods: A System Dynamics modelling approach was employed to simulate supply chain disruptions and recovery processes. For the first time, resilience strategies— including the establishment of backup buffers, contracting with backup suppliers, and increasing domestic production capacity—were comprehensively analysed within the framework of budget allocation policies. Results: The results indicate that strategies focused on increasing domestic production capacity, particularly Policy 3, which combines domestic production with backup suppliers and minimal backup buffers, significantly enhance supply chain resilience. These strategies create an optimal balance between costs and responsiveness to demand fluctuations. Conclusion: The findings suggest that increasing domestic production capacity, alongside leveraging backup suppliers, can establish a balance between vaccine costs and inventory levels, thereby ensuring the long-term resilience of the influenza vaccine supply chain even under peak demand conditions caused by viral mutations. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Influenza vaccine supply chain, Demand uncertainty, System dynamics, Disruption, Resiliency | ||
| مراجع | ||
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