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Factors affecting the behavior of inflation in the country under the asymmetric preferences of the central bank towards inflation | ||
| International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، اصلاح شده برای چاپ، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 21 تیر 1405 اصل مقاله (745.84 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/ijnaa.2024.35108.5243 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Iman Varmazyari؛ Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Ahmadi* ؛ Amir Gholami | ||
| Department of Economics, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 02 شهریور 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 26 آبان 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The broad impact of inflation on economic indicators and welfare has led monetary authorities, particularly central banks, to maintain inflation at a desirable or target level, thereby preventing the costs associated with rising inflation in society. Sometimes, the central bank fails to achieve its goals due to monetary policy asymmetry or time inconsistency. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate factors affecting the country's inflation behaviour by emphasising the central bank's asymmetric preferences regarding inflation in 1981-2023 in the Islamic Republic of Iran using the ARDL method. The results showed that financial development and production gaps hurt inflation. In addition, trade liberalization, exchange rate, and inflation uncertainty, under the conditions of the central bank's asymmetric preferences towards inflation, positively affect inflation, indicating a trade-off between production and inflation. Inflationary (inflation higher than the target inflation) monetary policy mistakes are less common when the central bank is confident about the state of the economy. Central banks are confident about the economy and less worried about inflationary monetary policy errors (inflation above the target). Therefore, the central bank is suggested to use monetary policy tools regularly and principled and avoid the principle of surprise in the economic field. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| inflation؛ asymmetric preferences؛ central bank؛ ARDL method | ||
| مراجع | ||
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