بررسی شاخص نرخ مخاطره بر مبنای متغیرهای کمکی مشهود و نامشهود مطالعه موردی معدن جاجرم بوکسیت

برآبادی, رضا; عطایی, محمد; خالوکاکائی, رضا; نوری قراحسنلو, علی

doi:10.22075/jme.2019.17837.1721

اداره چاپ و انتشارات دانشگاه سمنان

تعداد نشریات	21
تعداد شماره‌ها	610
تعداد مقالات	9,028
تعداد مشاهده مقاله	67,082,917
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله	7,656,369

	بررسی شاخص نرخ مخاطره بر مبنای متغیرهای کمکی مشهود و نامشهود مطالعه موردی معدن جاجرم بوکسیت
مدل سازی در مهندسی
مقاله 16، دوره 17، شماره 59، دی 1398، صفحه 225-243 اصل مقاله (2.38 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله مهندسی معدن
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jme.2019.17837.1721
نویسندگان
رضا برآبادی¹؛ محمد عطایی²؛ رضا خالوکاکائی³؛ علی نوری قراحسنلو^* ⁴
¹دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی استخراج معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود
²دانشکده مهندسی معدن دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود
³عضو هیئت‌علمی گروه معدن ، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود
⁴دکتری مهندسی استخراج معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود
تاریخ دریافت: 29 اردیبهشت 1398، تاریخ بازنگری: 02 مرداد 1398، تاریخ پذیرش: 13 شهریور 1398
چکیده
در صنعت معدنکاری با محیط خشن که بخش‌های مختلف وظیفه کنترل سیستم را عهده‌دار می‌باشند. اطلاعات خرابی‌ها از بخش‌های مختلف، در قالب‌های گوناگون با زمان‌های مختلف و شرایط عملیاتی متفاوت جمع‌آوری می‌شوند. این مسائل ناهمگونی در اطلاعات گردآوری‌شده و بانک داده را به دنبال خواهد داشت. بخشی از ناهمگنی به کمک همین متغیر کمکی مشهود از محاسبات حذف می‌شوند ولی مشکل از جایی نشات می‌یابد که واردکردن تمامی شرایط محیطی امکان‌پذیر نیست. این دسته از عوامل محیطی که منجر به ناهمگنی در داده‌ها می‌شوند به‌عنوان متغیر کمکی نامشهود دسته‌بندی می‌شوند. به همین منظور در این مقاله رویکردی منسجم برای تحلیل عملکرد سیستم بر اساس شاخص قابلیت اطمینان با تأثیر شرایط محیطی پیشنهاد شد. شرایط محیطی در دودسته مشهود که دربرگیرنده عواملی نظیر وضعیت جاده، آب‌وهوا، نوع سنگ،... بوده و نامشهود که دربرگیرنده ناهمگنی است، در نظر گرفته‌شده است. رویکرد پیشنهادی با داده‌هایی از ناوگان باربری معدن بوکسیت جاجرم متشکل از 5 کامیون مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. داده‌های موردنیاز از بانک داده ۱۵ ماهه از منابع مختلف چون گزارش‌های روزانه، تعمیرگاه، گزارش‌های هواشناسی، ملاقات و مشاهده‌های مستقیم و مرتب‌شده بر اساس تاریخ وقوع در غالب زمان بین خرابی‌ها و متغیر کمکی استخراج گردید. متغیرهای کمکی بر اساس الگوریتم ارائه‌شده و نتایج حاصله از آزمون‌های تناسب و همگنی مدل نرخ مخاطرات متناسب ترکیبی برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌های خرابی مورداستفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده بیانگر تأثیر متغیرهای کمکی نوبت‌کاری، تعداد سرویس‌ها، نوع خردایش و شیب جاده بر روی قابلیت اطمینان کامیون‌ها است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
معدنکاری؛ قابلیت اطمینان؛ فاکتور ریسک نامشهود؛ مدل نرخ مخاطرات متناسب ترکیبی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Observed and Un-Observed Covariate Effects on Baseline Hazard Rate - Case study: Jajarm Bauxite Mine
نویسندگان [English]
Reza Barabadi¹؛ Mohammad Ataei²؛ Reza Khalokakaie³؛ Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou⁴
¹Ph.D. Student of Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
²Professor, Faculty of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
³Professor, Faculty of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
⁴PhD. of Mining Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
چکیده [English]
In the mining industry, different departments undertake the control task of a system. The failure data from different sections in a variety of formats are collected in different times and operation conditions and these heterogeneity problems will result in the collected data and the data bank. While the studies that are done so far, two items of time and environmental effects have been examined and in fact, the data are assumed homogeneously. However, a part of heterogeneity by the help of observed covariate is omitted, but the problem starts where entering all environmental conditions is not possible. Since some factors such as the effect of management decisions, different brands, operator skills cannot be recorded or they cannot be quantifiable; and in spite of being observable, some are not recorded or not classified. These categories of environmental factors that lead to heterogeneity in the data are categorized as the unobserved covariate. For this purpose, in this paper, a coherent approach was proposed for system performance analysis based on the reliability index with the impact of environmental conditions. Environmental conditions are considered in two observed categories, which include factors such as road conditions, weather conditions, rock types, and unobserved ones that include heterogeneity. The proposed approach was evaluated with data from the mining fleet of Jajarm Bauxite mine consisting of 5 trucks. The significant difference between the results of the inclusion of heterogeneity with its lack of consideration indicates the importance of the impact of unobserved covariates on determining the system's behavior.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Mining, Reliability, Unobserved Covariate, Mix proportional hazard model

مراجع
[1] A. Nouri Qarahasanlou, "Production Assurance of Mining Fleet Based on Dependability and Risk Factor (Case Study: Sungun Copper Mine)", PhD Thesis in Mineral Exploita, Shahrood University of Technology Faculty of Mining, Petroleum & Geophysics, Iran, Shahrood, 2017. [2] M. Hashemi Majd, A. Rasoolzadegan, and Z. Yazdi Ghavidel, "A Systematic Literature Review on Software Reliability Modeling", Journal of Modeling in Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 50, Sep. 2017, pp. 285–313. [3] M. Rakhshanimehr, M. Rashki, M. Miri, and M. Azhdarimoghaddam, "Reliability Analysis of Flexural Steel Frames by Using the Weighted Simulation Method and Radial Basis Function Interpolation", Journal of Modeling in Engineering, Vol. 14, No. 47, Jan. 2017, pp. 21–32. [4] N. Gorjian Jolfaei, "Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model", Queensland University of Thechnology, 2012. [5] M. Shahrokhi and Z. Sobhani, "Optimization of availability the systems with redundant considering the half-stat, deals and repair rate´s change", Journal of Modeling in Engineering, Vol. 16, No. 54, Sep. 2018, pp. 19–19. [6] R. G. Gutierrez, "Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models", Stata Journal, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2002, pp. 22–44. [7] Y. Z. Ayele, A. Barabadi, and J. Barabady, "Dynamic spare parts transportation model for Arctic production facility", International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, Mar. 2016, pp. 84–98. [8] A. Barabadi, "Production Performance Analysis: Reliability, Maintainability and Operational Conditions", University of Stavanger, Stavanger NORWAY, 2011. [9] A. Barabadi, "Reliability and Spare Parts Provision Considering Operational Environment: A Case Study", International Journal of Performability Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 5, 2012, pp. 497–506. [10] A. Barabadi, "Reliability Analysis of Offshore Production Facilities Under Arctic Conditions Using Reliability Data From Other Areas", Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol. 136, No. 2, 2014, p. 021601. [11] A. Barabadi, J. Barabady, and T. Markeset, "A methodology for throughput capacity analysis of a production facility considering environment condition", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 96, No. 12, 2011, pp. 1637–1646. [12] A. Barabadi, J. Barabady, and T. Markeset, "Application of reliability models with covariates in spare part prediction and optimization–a case study", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 123, 2014, pp. 1–7. [13] A. Barabadi and T. Markeset, "Reliability and maintainability performance under Arctic conditions", International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2011, pp. 205–217. [14] B. Ghodrati, "Reliability and operating environment based spare parts planning", Doctoral Thesis, Luleå University of Technology, Sweden, 2005. [15] B. Ghodrati and U. Kumar, "Reliability and operating environment-based spare parts estimation approach: a case study in Kiruna Mine, Sweden", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2005, pp. 169–184. [16] B. Ghodrati and U. Kumar, "Operating environment-based spare parts forecasting and logistics: a case study", International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2005, pp. 95–105. [17] A. Nouri Gharahasanlou, R. Khalokakaie, M. Ataei, and S. Fatorachi, "Availability analysis of mining machinery in Sungun copper mine", Geotechnical Engineering Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Feb. 2017, pp. 61–72. [18] A. Nouri Gharahasanlou, M. Ataei, R. Khalokakaie, and A. Barabadi, "Normalised availability importance measures for complex systems", International Journal of Mining, Reclamation and Environment, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2016, pp. 1–14. [19] A. Nouri Gharahasanlou, R. Khalokakaie, M. Khalokakaie, and A. Mokhtarei, "Reliability Analysis of Conveyor Belt System of Crushing Department", JAEBS, Vol. 5, 2015, pp. 349–357. [20] A. Nouri Qarahasanlou, M. Ataei, R. Khalokakaie, B. Ghodrati, and R. Jafarei, "Tire demand planning based on reliability and operating environment", International Journal of Mining & Geo-Engineering, Vol. 50, No. 2, Dec. 2016, pp. 239–248. برآبادی، عطایی، خالو کاکایی و نوری قراحسنلو 241 مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی سال هفدهم، شماره 59 ، زمستان 1398 [21] A. Nouri Qarahasanlou, M. Ataei, R. Khaolukakaie, B. Ghodrati, and M. Mokhberdoran, "Maintainability measure based on operating environment, a case study: Sungun copper mine", Journal of Mining and Environment, Vol. 8, No. 3, 2017, pp. 511–521. [22] A. Nouri Qarahasanlou, R. Khalokakaie, M. Ataei, and M. Mokhberdoran, "Spare Parts Provision", Journal of Analytical and Numerical Methods in Mining Engineering, Vol. 0, No. 0, Dec. 2016. [23] D. Kumar and B. Klefsjö, "Proportional hazards model: a review", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 44, No. 2, 1994, pp. 177–188. [24] A. Pickles and R. Crouchley, "A comparison of frailty models for multivariate survival data", Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 14, No. 13, 1995, pp. 1447–1461. [25] S. Rabe-Hesketh, A. Skrondal, and A. Pickles, "Reliable estimation of generalized linear mixed models using adaptive quadrature", The Stata Journal, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2002, pp. 1–21. [26] A. Wienke, Frailty models in survival analysis. CRC Press, 2010. [27] J. W. Vaupel, K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard, "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality", Demography, Vol. 16, No. 3, 1979, pp. 439–454. [28] D. Clayton and J. Cuzick, "Multivariate generalizations of the proportional hazards model", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), Vol. 148, No. 2, 1985, pp. 82–108. [29] M. A. Pourhoseingholi, E. Hajizadeh, B. Moghimi Dehkordi, A. Safaee, A. Abadi, and M. R. Zali, "Comparing Cox regression and parametric models for survival of patients with gastric carcinoma", Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol. 8, No. 3, 2007, pp. 412–416. [30] A. Soldatov, "Reliability of blasting equipment", Journal of Mining Science, Vol. 5, No. 5, 1969, pp. 518–523. [31] E. Freidina, A. Kovalenko, and O. Rudenko, "Effect of mine-transport-equipment reliability on the productivity of a quarry system", Journal of Mining Science, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1975, pp. 50–54. [32] B.S. Dhillon, "Bibliography of literature on mining equipment reliability", Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 26, No. 6, 1986, pp. 1131–1138. [33] N. Petrov and O. Butorina, "Reliability analysis of ventilation systems", Soviet Mining, Vol. 22, No. 6, 1986, pp. 491–496. [34] G.V.R. Goodman, "An assessment of coal mine escapeway reliability using fault tree analysis", Mining Science and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1988, pp. 205–215. [35] U. Kumar, B. Klefsjö, and S. Granholm, "Reliability investigation for a fleet of load haul dump machines in a Swedish mine", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 26, No. 4, Jan. 1989, pp. 341–361. [36] D. Kumar, B. Klefsjö, and U. Kumar, "Reliability analysis of power transmission cables of electric mine loaders using the proportional hazards model", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1992, pp. 217–222. [37] D. Kumar and U. Westberg, "Proportional hazards modeling of time-dependent covariates using linear regression: a case study [mine power cable reliability]", Reliability, IEEE Transactions on, Vol. 45, No. 3, 1996, pp. 386–392. [38] H. Shyur, E. Elsayed, and J. T. Luxhøj, "A general model for accelerated life testing with time‐dependent covariates", Naval Research Logistics (NRL), Vol. 46, No. 3, 1999, pp. 303–321. [39] D.W. Coit and J.R. English, "System reliability modeling considering the dependence of component environmental influences", presented at the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 1999. Proceedings. Annual, 1999, pp. 214–218. [40] G. Nollet and D. Prince, "Rotating equipment reliability for surface operation. Part II: Oil analysis in a mine", CIM bulletin, Vol. 96, No. 1067, 2003, pp. 82–86. [41] J. Barabady and U. Kumar, "Maintenance Schedule by Using Reliability Analysis: A Case Study at Jajram Bauxite Mine of Iran", presented at the 20th World Mining Congress, Tehran, Iran, Vol. 2, 2005, pp. 831–838. [42] J. Barabady, "Reliability and maintainability analysis of crushing plants in Jajarm Bauxite Mine of Iran", presented at the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2005. Proceedings. Annual, 2005, pp. 109–115. 242 بررسی شاخص نرخ مخاطره بر مبنای متغیرهای کمکی مشهود و نامشهود مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی سال هفدهم، شماره 59 ، زمستان 1398 [43] Z. Ma, "Survival analysis approach to reliability, survivability and prognostics and health management (phm)", presented at the Aerospace Conference, 2008 IEEE, 2008, pp. 1–20. [44] R. Xu and A. Gamst, "On proportional hazards assumption under the random effects models", Lifetime data analysis, Vol. 13, No. 3, 2007, pp. 317–332. [45] F. N. Kissell, J. C. Tien, and E. D. Thimons, "Methods for Controlling Explosion Risk at Coal Mine Working Faces", presented at the First China International Forum on Workplace Emergency Management and Rescue, 2007. [46] S.H. Hoseinie, M. Ataei, R. Khalokakaie, B. Ghodrati, and U. Kumar, "Reliability analysis of the cable system of drum shearer using the power law process model", International Journal of Mining, Reclamation and Environment, Sep. 2012, pp. 1–15. [47] S.H. Hoseinie, M. Ataei, R. Khalokakaie, B. Ghodrati, and U. Kumar, "Reliability analysis of drum shearer machine at mechanized longwall mines", Journal of quality in maintenance engineering, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2012, pp. 98–119. [48] C. Mouli, S. Chamarthi, R.C. Gȧ, and A.K. Vȧ, "Reliability modeling and performance analysis of dumper systems in mining by KME method", IJCET (2), 2014, pp. 255–258. [49] H.S.H. Al-Chalabi, Reliability and life cycle cost modelling of mining drilling rigs, Luleå University of Technology, 2014. [50] A. Morshedlou, H. Dehghani, and S.H. Hoseinie, "Reliability-based maintenance scheduling of powered supports in Tabas mechanized coal mine", Journal of Mining and Environment, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2014, pp. 113–120,. [51] A.N. Qarahasanlou, R. Khalokakaie, M. Ataei, and B. Ghodrati, "Operating Environment-Based Availability Importance Measures for Mining Equipment (Case Study: Sungun Copper Mine)", Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 17, No. 1, 2017, pp. 56–67. [52] J. Faradmal, A. Talebi, A. Rezaianzadeh, and H. Mahjub, "urvival analysis of breast cancer patients using cox and frailty models", Journal of research in health sciences, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2012, pp. 127–130. [53] Z. G. Asfaw and B. H. Lindqvist, "Unobserved heterogeneity in the power law nonhomogeneous Poisson process", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 134, 2015, pp. 59–65. [54] K. Atashgar, S. MOLANA, A. Biglarian, and A. Sheikhaliyan, "Analysis of survival data of patient with breast cancer using Cox regression model", Vol. 26, 2016. [55] N. Gorjian, L. Ma, M. Mittinty, P. Yarlagadda, and Y. Sun, "The explicit hazard model-part 1: theoretical development", presented at the Prognostics and Health Management Conference, 2010. PHM’10., 2010, pp. 1–10. [56] A.H.S. Garmabaki, A. Ahmadi, J. Block, H. Pham, and U. Kumar, "A reliability decision framework for multiple repairable units", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 150, 2016, pp. 78–88. [57] D.R. Cox, "Regression models and life-tables", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), Vol. 34, No. 2, 1972, pp. 187–220. [58] B. Ghodrati, U. Kumar, and D. Kumar, "Product support logistics based on product design characteristics and operating environment", presented at the 38th Annual International Logistics Conference and Exhibition: SOLE 2003, Huntsville, United States, 2003, p. 21. [59] S. Martorell, A. Sanchez, and V. Serradell, "Age-dependent reliability model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 64, No. 1, 1999, pp. 19–31. [60] V. Slimacek and B.H. Lindqvist, "Nonhomogeneous Poisson process with nonparametric frailty and covariates", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 167, Nov. 2017, pp. 75–83. [61] J.H. Cha and M. Finkelstein, "Some notes on unobserved parameters (frailties) in reliability modeling", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 123, Mar. 2014, pp. 99–103. [62] T. Lancaster, The econometric analysis of transition data, Cambridge university press, 1992. [63] A. Barabadi, J. Barabady, and T. Markeset, "Maintainability analysis considering time-dependent and time-independent covariates", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 96, 2011, pp. 210–217. [64] D. Kumar and B. Klefsjo, "Proportional hazards model: a review", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 44, 1994, pp. 177–188. برآبادی، عطایی، خالو کاکایی و نوری قراحسنلو 243 مجله مدل سازی در مهندسی سال هفدهم، شماره 59 ، زمستان 1398 [65] D.G. Kleinbaum and M. Klein, "Evaluating the Proportional Hazards Assumption", in Survival Analysis. Statistics for Biology and Health, 3rd ed., New York: Springer, 2012.
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 566 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 258

سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب

پیوندهای مفید

پیوندهای مفید

آمار

بررسی شاخص نرخ مخاطره بر مبنای متغیرهای کمکی مشهود و نامشهود مطالعه موردی معدن جاجرم بوکسیت