پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 21 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 642 |
| تعداد مقالات | 9,391 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 68,106,002 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 35,766,460 |
Presenting the optimal monetary policy effect model on inflation and exchange rate control | ||
| International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications | ||
| مقاله 19، دوره 15، شماره 8، آبان 2024، صفحه 215-224 اصل مقاله (330.08 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/ijnaa.2023.31434.4628 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Amir Saboori؛ Mahnaz Rabiei* ؛ Fatemeh Zandi؛ Bahram Shakuri | ||
| Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 13 اسفند 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 26 مرداد 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 30 مرداد 1402 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| In recent years, due to the existence of severe sanctions and obstacles governing the sale of oil, it has led to an increase in the exchange rate, and on the other hand, the decrease in foreign exchange resources has led to a decrease in the government's income, and the limitation of the income due to the financial policies of the government has made it difficult to meet the expenses of the government does not give and as a result, the budget deficit has caused many problems in the economic system of the government. The government's budget deficit leads to borrowing from the central bank or banks, and ultimately to the growth of the monetary-liquidity base, inflation and a decrease in the value of the national currency against foreign currencies. In this article, the effects of optimal monetary policy on these variables are investigated and the existing research gap is closed. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of optimal monetary policy on controlling inflation and exchange rate. The current research method is practical. The period of the current research was 1357 to 1398. To estimate the model, the self-regression econometric model with distributed interruptions or ARDL was used in Microfit 5 software space. With the increase in money supply and the lack of proportional and symmetrical increase in the production of goods, the tendency to import goods increases, and in this case, pressure is put on the current price of the exchange rate and the causes of its increase are provided. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling inflation and exchange rate. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling the exchange rate. As a result, according to the results of the model, the liquidity situation and income inequality have worsened during the period under review, and as a result, the monetary policy in the country was not effective. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| Optimal monetary policy؛ Liquidity؛ Inequality of income distribution؛ ARDL | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] F. Abedi, The effect of monetary and financial policies on the financial stabilization of Iran, Strategic Macro Policy Quart. 1 (2012), no. 3, 103–115. [2] V.V. Acharya, Y. Amihud and S.T. Bharath, Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach, J. Financ. Econ. 110 (2013), no. 2, 358–386. [3] T. Adrian and N. Liang, Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2811090, (2016). [4] P. Benigno, P. Canofari and G. Di Bartolomeo, The European monetary policy responses during the pandemic crisis, Open Econ. Rev. 19 (2022), no. 4, 23–35. [5] F.J. Buera and J.P. Kaboski, Scale and the origins of structural change, J. Econ. Theory 147 (2012), no. 2, 684–712. [6] C. Ebeke and A. Fouejieu, Inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, BE J. Macroecon. 18 (2018), no. 2, 20170146. [7] D. Furceri, P. Loungani and A. Zdzienicka, The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality, J. Int. Money Finance 85 (2018), 168–186. [8] H. Ghaffari, M. Jaloli and A. Chegani Ashtiani, Investigating and predicting the effects of exchange rate increase on the economic growth of economic sectors, Res. Econ. Growth Dev. (2012), no. 10, 46–57. [9] A. Gugardchian, H. Naeni and S. Sadat, Reviewing and testing the performance of Iran’s banking system in liquidity management, Econ. Model. Res. (2012), no. 11, 1–22. [10] A. Ismailzadeh and H. Chivalry, Designing a suitable model for liquidity management and risk forecasting in Saderat Bank of Iran, Financ. Econ. 11 (2016), no. 39, 171–197. [11] J. Iversen, S. Laseen, H. Lundvall and S. Ulf, Real-time forecasting for monetary policy analysis: The case of Sveriges Riksbank, Riksbank Res. Paper Ser. 142 (2016). [12] T. Jandaghi, Investigating the impact of macroeconomic variables including: exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate on the changes in retained earnings of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization, Master’s thesis, Public Administration, Human Resource Management, Payam Noor University, Semnan, 2022. [13] S. Johansen, Testing weak exogeneity and order of cointegration in UK money demand data, J. Policy Model. 14 (1993), 313–334. [14] M. Karimi, Investigating the relationship between the exchange rate and the exchange rate with the inflation rate in Iran, Master’s thesis, Theoretical Economics, Urmia University, 2022. [15] A. Kazroni, A. Rezazadeh and M. Pushhari, The monetary approach of exchange rate in Iran, Econ. Res. J. (2010), no. 37, 101–120. [16] M. Khalili Iraqi, H. Shakuri and M. Zanganeh, Determining the optimal rule of monetary policy in Iran’s economy using optimal control theory, Econ. Res. J. (2009), no. 44, 69–94. [17] M. Khorsandi, K. Islamloiyan and S.H. Zulnoor, The optimal rule for monetary policy with the assumption of inflation stability: the case of Iran, Iran. Econ. Res. Quart. 17 (2011), no. 51, 43–70. [18] S.H. Mir Jalili, Comparative study of conventional versus unconventional monetary policy, Comparat. Econ. Res. Inst. Human. Cult. Stud. 3 (2015), no.2, 111–125. [19] Y. Naqdi and F. Efti Baran, Determining the optimal interest rate and its effects on Iran’s economy (an application of optimal control models), Econ. Model. 13 (2018), no. 45, 73–92. [20] R. Naraidoo and L. Raputsoane, Optimal monetary policy reaction functions in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa, Econ. Model. 28 (2011), 251–258. [21] M. Pahlavani and N. Dahmardeh, Estimates the demand for import and export functions in the Iranian economy by using the convergence ARDL, J. Econ. (2007), no. 3. [22] M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin and R.I. Smith, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001), 289–326. [23] R. Pirayesh and A. Rouhani, Predicting and managing the liquidity risk of banks in the context of resistance economy, a case study of the Agricultural Bank, First Nat. Con. Third Gen. Univ. Skill Train. Entrepreneur. Sustain. Dev. Context Resistance Econ., 2015. [24] D.T. Robinson and B.A. Sensoy, Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity, J. Financ. Econ. 122 (2016), no. 3, 521–543. [25] F. Shaliari, Investigating the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation and interest rate uncertainty and the role of credibility of monetary and financial policies on it: the case study of Iran, PhD thesis, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, 2020. [26] J. Stein, Incorporating financial stability considerations into a monetary policy framework: a speech at the international research forum on monetary policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Washington, D.C., 2014 (2014), no. 796. [27] Y. Teryoshin, Inflation target uncertainty and monetary policy, Seminar in Stanford University, 2017. [28] J.C. Trichet, Unconventional monetary policy, Paper Series No. 318, Econ. Rev. 94 (2013), no. 2. [29] M. Yazdani, H. Dargahi and R. Akbari Afrozi, Inflation targeting with an emphasis on the real exchange rate in Iran’s macroeconomics, Iran Econ. Res. 22 (2016), no. 72, 151–186. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 2,948 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 3,340 |
||