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بررسی تاثیر سرریز بینالمللی سیاستهای پولی بر وامدهی بانکها در کشورهای با درآمد متوسط بالا: رویکرد رگرسیون آستانهای پانل | ||
| مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 9، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 34، تیر 1403، صفحه 69-102 اصل مقاله (1004.81 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jem.2024.33127.1913 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| نصرت بحرینی1؛ بهزاد سلمانی* 2؛ حسین اصغرپور2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز | ||
| 2استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 09 بهمن 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 24 اردیبهشت 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 02 خرداد 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر، بررسی تاثیر سرریز بینالمللی سیاستهای پولی ایالات متحده بر وامدهی بانکها، در 34 کشور با درآمد متوسط بالا، طی دوره زمانی 2021-2000 است. برای این منظور از رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانل (PSTR) برای برآورد مدل تحقیق استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج تخمین، مدل شامل 2 رژیم بوده و متغیر انتقال آن، نرخ سیاست پولی ایالات متحده است که در رژیم اول معنادار نبوده و در رژیم دوم منفی و معنادار است. به طوری که، با کاهش نرخ بهره و اعمال سیاستهای پولی انبساطی در ایالات متحده، نرخ وام دهی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه افزایش مییابد؛ و بالعکس. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده و عدم استقلال سیاستهای پولی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه، توصیه میشود کشورها با سیاستگذاریهای هدفمند، شرایط اقتصاد داخلی خود را نسبت به شرایط بیرونی با ثباتتر کرده و به نوعی، اقتصاد خود را نسبت به شوکهای خارجی ایمن کنند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| سیاستهای پولی؛ سرریز بینالمللی؛ وامدهی بانکها؛ رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانل | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Investigating the impact of International Monetary Policy Spillover on Bank Lending in Upper Middle –Income Countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Nosrat Bahraini1؛ Behzad Salmani2؛ Hossein Asgharpur2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Candidate Faculty of Economic and Managements, University of Tabriz | ||
| 2Professor Faculty of Economic and Managements, University of Tabriz | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The main objective of the present study is to investigate the international spillover effect of US monetary policies on bank lending for 34 upper-middle-income countries during the period of 2000-2021. For this purpose, Panel Smooth Transition Regression model (PSTR) method has been used to estimate the model of this research. Based on the estimation results, the model includes two regimes and its transition variable is the monetary policy rate of the United States, which is not significant in the first regime and is negative and significant in the second regime. So, with the reduction of interest rates and the implementation of expansionary monetary policies in the United States, the lending rate in the studied countries increases; and vice versa. Based on the results obtained and the lack of independence of monetary policies in the studied countries, it is recommended that the countries make their internal economic conditions more stable than the external conditions with targeted policies and somehow secure their economy against external shocks. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Monetary policies, International Spillover, Bank Lending, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) | ||
| مراجع | ||
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