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اثر سیاست پولی بر سه کسری در ایران: کاربردی از رهیافت پویایی شناسی سیستم | ||
| مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی | ||
| مقاله 4، دوره 9، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 34، تیر 1403، صفحه 103-130 اصل مقاله (1.02 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jem.2024.32948.1903 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| گیتی صادقیان1؛ احمد جعفری صمیمی* 2؛ سعید راسخی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، ایران | ||
| 2استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، ایران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 24 دی 1402، تاریخ بازنگری: 27 اردیبهشت 1403، تاریخ پذیرش: 02 خرداد 1403 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بررسی اثر کسری بودجه بر کسری حساب جاری همواره مورد توجه اقتصاددانان بوده است. در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان دو رویکرد برای بررسی این ارتباط وجود دارد: رویکرد کینزی و رویکرد ریکاردویی. رویکرد کینزی وجود ارتباط بین کسری بودجه و کسری حساب جاری را می پذیرد در حالی که رویکرد ریکاردویی این ارتباط را رد می کند. با بررسی مطالعات صورت گرفته در حوزه دو کسری، این مطالعه به بررسی فرضیه دو کسری و سه کسری و همچنین تاثیر سیاست های پولی بر سه کسری می پردازد. در راستای دستیابی به هدف مذکور از روش پویایی شناسی سیستم و از داده های بازه زمانی 1378-1399 بهره گرفته شد. نتایج حاصل از مطالعه حکایت از برقراری رابطه دو کسری و سه کسری را دارد. روند حساب سرمایه نشان می دهد که این حساب همواره با کسری روبروست. با این حال، به نظر نمی رسد که شکاف پس انداز داخلی کاملا با سرمایه خارجی جبران شده باشد. عدم تعادل در ترازپرداخت ها کسری بودجه ایجاد شده را تشدید می کند و می تواند چرخه پرشتابی از کسری بودجه را رقم بزند. همچنین در این مطالعه اثر سیاست پولی بر سه کسری نیز مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان می دهد که اعمال یک سیاست پولی بر فرایند شکل گیری دو کسری و سه کسری تاثیر گذار نیست. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| کسری سه گانه؛ کسری دوگانه؛ پویایی شناسی سیستم | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Impact of Monetary Policy on Triple Deficit in Iran: An Application of System Dynamic Approach | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Giti Sadeghian1؛ Ahmad Jafari Samimi2؛ Saeed Rasekhi2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Student in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Iran | ||
| 2Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| An approach to the effect of the budget deficit on the current account deficit has always been the focus of economists. In the macroeconomics literature, there are two approaches to investigate this relationship: the Keynesian approach and the Ricardian approach. The Keynesian approach accepts the existence of a relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit, while the Ricardian approach rejects this relationship. By examining the studies conducted in the field of Twin deficits, this study examines the hypothesis of Twin deficits and Triple deficits, as well as the impact of monetary policies on Triple deficits. In order to achieve the mentioned goal, the System Dynamics method and data from the period of 1999-2020 were used. The results of the study indicate the establishment of twin and triple deficit. The trend of the capital account shows that this account is always facing a deficit. However, the domestic savings gap does not seem to be fully compensated by foreign capital. The imbalance in the balance of payments aggravates the created budget deficit and can create an accelerated cycle of budget deficit. Also, in this study, the effect of monetary policy on triple deficits was also investigated. The results of the study show that using the monetary policy does not affect the formation of twin deficits and triple deficits | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Triple Deficit, Twin Deficit, System Dynamic | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 490 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 281 |
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