
تعداد نشریات | 21 |
تعداد شمارهها | 635 |
تعداد مقالات | 9,314 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 67,881,282 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 17,103,478 |
بررسی اثر نااطمینانی درآمدهای دولت بر کسری بودجه (رویکرد رگرسیون کوانتایل مبتنی بر تبدیل موجک) | ||
مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی | ||
مقاله 6، دوره 10، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 37، اردیبهشت 1404، صفحه 157-198 اصل مقاله (1.11 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jem.2025.36087.1953 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
امیر علی فرهنگ1؛ سعید کیان پور* 2؛ مهنوش بقایی فر3 | ||
1دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران | ||
2عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور | ||
3دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه علوم تحقیقات، تهران، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 09 آذر 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 28 اردیبهشت 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 31 اردیبهشت 1404 | ||
چکیده | ||
در دنیای واقعی، نااطمینانی متغیرهای اقتصادی موجب ریسک در فضای تصمیمگیری دولتها و عوامل اقتصادی برای اعمال سیاستها و بودجهریزی سالانه شده و رفتار آنها را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد، بنابراین مفهومسازی مدل درآمد مالیاتی به عنوان بخشی از درآمد دولت مفید خواهد بود. مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات کمی عدم قطعیت درآمدهای دولت برکسری بودجه دراقتصاد ایران با استفاده از مدل خودتوضیحی تعمیمیافته واریانس شرطی در بازه زمانی 1386 الی 1401 می پردازد. برای نخستین بار برای تحلیل دقیق تر نوسانات، از روش تبدیل موجک ناپیوسته با حداکثر همپوشانی استفاده کرده تا تأثیرات نااطمینانی درآمدها برکسری بودجه درمقیاسهای زمانی مختلف تعیین شود. نتایج تحلیل نشان میدهد که نااطمینانی درآمدهای دولت تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر کسری بودجه در تمامی چندکها دارد. این تأثیر در چندکهای ابتدایی کمتر و در چندکهای انتهایی بیشتر است، که نشاندهنده افزایش اثر مثبت نااطمینانی درآمدهای دولت برکسریبودجه در طول زمان است. این نتایج تأکید میکنند که مدیریت نااطمینانی در درآمدهای دولت، به ویژه در کوتاهمدت و میانمدت، بسیار حیاتی است. سیاستهای اقتصادی که بتوانند به کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و افزایش تنوع منابع درآمدی دولت کمک کنند، میتوانند در کاهش کسری بودجه و بهبود پایداری اقتصادی نقش کلیدی ایفا کنند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
نااطمینانی؛ درآمدهای دولت؛ کسری بودجه؛ کوانتایل؛ موجک | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Investigating the Effect of Government Revenue uncertainty on the Budget Deficit (Quantile Regression Approach Based on Wavelet Transform) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Amir Ali Farhang1؛ Saeed Kian Poor2؛ Mahnoosh Baghaee far3 | ||
1Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University,Tehran, Iran | ||
2Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University,Tehran, Iran | ||
3PhD student in Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
In the real world, the uncertainty of economic variables causes risk in the decision-making space of governments and economic factors for applying policies and annual budgeting and affects their behavior, so conceptualizing the tax revenue model as a part of government revenue will be useful. The present study examines the quantitative effects of the uncertainty of government revenues on the budget deficit in Iran's economy using the generalized autoregression model of conditional variance in the period from 2016 to 2016. For the first time, for a more accurate analysis of fluctuations, the discontinuous wavelet transform method with maximum overlap was used to determine the effects of income uncertainty on the budget in different time scales. For Iran, the results of the analysis show that the uncertainty of government revenues has a positive and significant effect on the budget deficit in all parameters. This effect is lower in the initial quantiles and higher in the final quantiles, which indicates the increasing positive effect of government revenue uncertainty on the budget deficit over time. These results emphasize that managing uncertainty in government revenues, especially in the short and medium term, is critical. Economic policies that can help reduce dependence on oil revenues and increase the diversity of government revenue sources can play a key role in reducing the budget deficit and improving economic stability. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Uncertainty, Government Revenues, Budget Deficit, Quantile, Wavelet | ||
مراجع | ||
economic growth, European Journal of Political Economy, 26(4)و 517-532.
Akamobi, O. G., & Unachukwu, I. B. (2021). Macroeconomic effects of budget deficit in Nigeria. European Journal of Economic and Financial Research, 4(4).
Alesina, A., & Tabellini, G. (1990). A positive theory of fiscal deficits and government debt. The review of economic studies, 57(3), 403-414.
Alesina, A., Baqir, R., & Easterly, W. (1999). Public goods and ethnic divisions. The Quarterly journal of economics, 114(4), 1243-1284
Alesina, A., Favero, C., & Giavazzi, F. (2019). Effects of austerity: Expenditure-and tax-based approaches. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 141-162.
Álvarez Espinoza, R., García Marín, Á., & Ilabaca, S. (2018). Commodity Prices Shocks and Poverty in Chile.
Alvarez, L. W. (2019). Alvarez: Adventures of a physicist. Plunkett Lake Press
Amaliah, Y., Sakir, A. R., & Lukman, J. P. (2023). Optimization Of Local Tax Revenue: A Case Study Of Local Tax Revenue In The South Sulawesi Province. Oikonomia: Journal of Management Economics and Accounting, 1(1), 15-23.
Argenti, F., Torricelli, G., & Alparone, L. (2002). Signal-dependent noise removal in the undecimated wavelet domain. Proceedings of the 2002 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing (ICASSP), 3, 2141–2144. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICASSP.2002.5745357
Aschauer DA (1989) Is public expenditure productive? J Monet Econ 23(2), 177–200
Baron, D. P., & Ferejohn, J. A. (1989). Bargaining in legislatures. American political science review, 83(4), 1181-1206.
Barot, S., Abbadie, L., Auclerc, A., Barthelemy, C., Bérille, E., Billet, P., ... & Veyrières, M. (2019). Urban ecology, stakeholders and the future of ecology. Science of the Total Environment, 667, 475-484
Barro, R. J. (1990). Government spending in a simple model of endogeneous growth. Journal of political economy, 98(5, Part 2), S103-S125.
Barrot, L. D., Calderón, C., & Servén, L. (2018). Openness, specialization, and the external vulnerability of developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 134, 310-328.
Besley, T., & Persson, T. (2014). Why do developing countries tax so little?. Journal of economic perspectives, 28(4), 99-120.
Blanchard, O. (2019). Public debt and low interest rates. American Economic Review, 109(4), 1197-1229.
Blanchard, O. (2019). Public debt and low interest rates. American Economic Review, 109(4), 1197-1229.
Bleaney, M., Gemmell, N., & Greenaway, D. (1995). Tax revenue instability, with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 31(6), 883-902.
Boikos, S., Panagiotidis, T., & Voucharas, G. (2022). Financial development, reforms and growth. Economic Modelling, 108, 105734.
Bordo, M. D., & Levy, M. D. (2021). Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record. Economic Affairs, 41(1), 59-83.
Bottai, M., & Cilluffo, G. (2020). Nonlinear parametric quantile models. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 29(9), 2689–2704.
Buthelezi, E. M., & Nyatanga, P. (2023). Time-varying elasticity of cyclically adjusted primary balance and effect of fiscal consolidation on domestic government debt in South Africa. Economies, 11(5), 141.
Catania, L., Luati, A., & Mikkelsen, E. B. (2020). Dynamic multiple quantile models. ERN: Other Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods (Topic).
Cevik, S., & Miryugin, F. (2025). It’s never different: Fiscal policy shocks and inflation. Comparative Economic Studies, 67(1), 186-220.
Chauvet, L., & Guillaumont, P. (2009). Aid, volatility, and growth again: When aid volatility matters and when it does not. Review of Development Economics, 13(3), 452-463.
Çobanoğulları, G., Bilgili, F., & Çobanoğulları, Ö. K. (2024). Decoding the government budget puzzle: Unveiling the dynamics of taxes and expenditures in Turkey through continuous wavelet transform analysis. Ekonomski vjesnik/Econviews - Review of Contemporary Business, Entrepreneurship and Economic Issues, 37(1), 11-28.
Dabla-Norris, E., & Gündüz, Y. B. (2014). Exogenous shocks and growth crises in low-income countries: A vulnerability index. World Development, 59, 360-378
Dallari, P., & Ribba, A. (2020). The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries. Economic Modelling, 85, 218-232.
Demirer, M., Diebold, F. X., Liu, L., & Yilmaz, K. (2018). Estimating global bank network connectedness. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(1), 1-15
Deskar-Škrbić, M., & Milutinović, D. (2021). Design of fiscal consolidation packages and model-based fiscal multipliers in Croatia. Public sector economics, 45(1), 1-61
Dzigbede, K. D., Pathak, R., & Muzata, S. (2023). Budget systems and post-pandemic economic resilience in developing countries. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 35(3), 333-353.
Dzigbede, K. D., Pathak, R., & Muzata, S. (2023). Budget systems and post-pandemic economic resilience in developing countries. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 35(3), 333-353.
Easterly W, Rebelo S (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth. J Monet Econ 32(3):417–4582
Ebeke, C., & Ehrhart, H. (2012). Tax revenue instability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and remedies. Journal of African Economies, 21(1), 1-27.
Essers, D. (2013). Developing country vulnerability in light of the global financial crisis: Shock therapy?. Review of Development Finance, 3(2), 61-83
Farhang, A. A. (2022). The effects of economic policy uncertainty on the insurance industry (PMG approach). Quarterly Journal of Econometric Modeling, 7(1), 155-178. (In Persian)
Ghali, K. H. (1999). Government size and economic growth: Evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 31(8), 975-987.
Gong, L. and Zou, H.-F. (2002), Effects of growth and volatility in public expenditures on economic growth: theory and evidence, Annals of Economics and Finance, 3, 79-406.
Haji Molla Mirzaei, M., Mahmoudzadeh, M., Ghavidel, S., & Fathabadi, M. (2024). Uncertainty of government expenditure policy and economic activity in Iran. Journal of Islamic Azad University, 18(66), 483-504. (In Persian)
Haque, A. U., Nehrir, M. H., & Mandal, P. (2014). A hybrid intelligent model for deterministic and quantile regression approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 29(4), 1663–1672.
Hassani Moghaddam, R., Farhang, A. A., Abounoori, A., & Mohammadpour, A. (2021). The effect of corruption control and economic policies on economic growth in MENA countries. Quarterly Journal of Econometric Modelin, 6(4), 61-91. (In Persian)
Hosseinpour, M., Hejabr Kiani, K., Zandi, F., Dehghani, A., & Saeedi, Kh. (2020). Comparative analysis of the effects of government financial shocks on economic growth in Iran and selected MENA countries. Applied Economics, 10(32-33), 97-107. (In Persian)
Ibrahim, M., & Alagidede, P. (2018). Effect of financial development on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(6), 1104-1125.
Ioup, J., & Ioup, G. (1998). Noise removal and compression using a wavelet transform. SEG Technical Program Expanded Abstracts, 1998, 1577–1580.
Jacob, M., Wentland, K., & Wentland, S. A. (2022). Real effects of tax uncertainty: Evidence from firm capital investments. Management Science, 68(6), 4065-4089.
Lagravinese, R., Liberati, P., & Sacchi, A. (2020). Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence. Journal of Macroeconomics, 63, 103189.
Lakshmanasamy, T. (2022). The structural relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit in India: SVAR estimation of the twin deficit hypothesis.
Lim, D. (1983). Instability of government revenue and expenditure in less developed countries. World Development, 11(5), 447.
Liu, J., Chen, F., Yan, J., & Wang, D. (2019). CBN-VAE: A data compression model with efficient convolutional structure for wireless sensor networks. Sensors, 19(16), 3445.
Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Brief principles of macroeconomics. 2019. Cengage Learning.Economies, 11(5).
Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Brief principles of macroeconomics. Cengage Learning.
McArthur, J. B. (2014). Preserving Public Natural Resources: Value and Sustainability in a World of High Costs and Budget Shortfalls. Tex. J. Oil Gas & Energy L., 10, 265.
Momeni Vasalian, H., Daghighi Asli, A., & Zamanian, M. (2016). Investigating the relationship between tax revenues and government budget deficit in Iran's economy. Journal of Economic Sciences, 11(36), 177-200. (In Persian)
Muhammad, M., Chaudhry, M. A., Syed, S. H., & Saeed, M. (2023). Instability of government revenues and expenditures: implications for budget deficit in Pakistan. Quality & Quantity, 57(6), 4971-4983
Muhammad, M., Chaudhry, M. A., Syed, S. H., & Saeed, M. (2023). Instability of government revenues and expenditures: implications for budget deficit in Pakistan. Quality & Quantity, 57(6), 4971-4983.
Noskova, E., & Tumakov, D. (2024). Analysis of wavelet transform application for filtering real ECG signals from high-frequency noise. 2024 26th International Conference on Digital Signal Processing and its Applications (DSPA), 1-5.
Nzimande, N. P. & Ngalawa, H. (2022). Tax-spend or spend-tax? The case of Southern Africa. Econo-mies, 10(4), 85.
Pavithra, R., Ramya, R., & Alaiyarasi, G. (2015). Wavelet based non-local means algorithm for efficient denoising of MRI images. International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering, 4(8), 295–299.
Pindyck, R. and Solimano, A. (1993), “Economic instability and aggregate investments”, in Blanchard, O. and Fisher, S. (Eds), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press, Cambridge
Prassoga, T., & Soebagiyo, D. (2025). Analysis of Factors Affecting Budget Deficit in Indonesia. Jambura Equilibrium Journal, 7(1), 26-32.
Qiang, Y., Buttenfield, B., & Xu, J. (2022). Analyzing multi-scale spatial point patterns in a pyramid modeling framework. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 49(5), 619-631.
Rahimzadeh, A., & Bayat, A. (2024). Investigating factors affecting government budget deficit in Iran with emphasis on Islamic financial instruments and exchange rate (ARDL approach). Governmental Accounting, 10(2), 1-20. (In Persian)
Rodriguez, R. N. (2017). Five things you should know about quantile regression. Semantic Scholar. Retrieved from [PDF link].
Roubini, N., & Sachs, J. D. (1989). Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies. European Economic Review, 33(5), 903-933.
Sadeghi, S. (2023). Investigating the effect of inflation uncertainty on budget deficit in Iran, Master's thesis, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch. (In Persian)
Salvi, M., & Schaltegger, C. A. (2022). Tax more or spend less? Historical evidence from Switzerland’sfederal budget plans. International Tax and Public Finance, 30(3), 678-705.
Sameti, M., Mohammadi, V., Mozafari Shamsi, H., & Asadi, F. (2020). Investigating the dynamic relationship between tax structure and economic growth in Iran with emphasis on uncertainty. Iranian Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 8(32), 161-193. (In Persian)
Seater, J.J. (1993). Ricardian equivalence. J Econom Lit 31(1), 142–190.
Shaheen, R. (2021). Energy market dynamics and the role of fiscal policy in oil‐exporting countries: a TVAR approach. OPEC Energy Review, 45(3), 277-299.
Shaheen, R. (2021). Energy market dynamics and the role of fiscal policy in oil‐exporting countries: a TVAR approach. OPEC Energy Review, 45(3), 277-299.
Ubi, P., Ebi, B., & Udah, E. (2021). Fiscal deficit, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, 9(6), 1510-1523.
Wang, Y., Kong, L., Jiang, B., Zhou, X., Yu, S., Zhang, L., & Heo, G. (2019). Wavelet-based LASSO in functional linear quantile regression. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 89(10), 1792–1813.
Weingast, B. R., Shepsle, K. A., & Johnsen, C. (1981). The political economy of benefits and costs: A neoclassical approach to distributive politics. Journal of political Economy, 89(4), 642-664.
Yaqub, K. Q. (2024). The role of oil revenue in shaping Iraq's public budget. British Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, 1(2), 1-24.
Yu, X., Liu, Y., Sun, Z., & Qin, P. (2022). Wavelet-based ResNet: A deep-learning model for prediction of significant wave height. IEEE Access, 10, 109242–109254.
Zandavar, Sh., Zandi, F., Khezri, M., & Rabiei, M. (2020). Explaining the nonlinear effects of fiscal policy tools (with emphasis on tax revenues) on Iran's economic growth during boom and recession periods. Economic Modeling, 14(51), 99-118. (In Persian)
Zeira, A., & Benbenishty, R. (2011). Readiness for independent living of adolescents in youth villages in Israel. Children and Youth Services Review, 33(12), 2461-2468.
Zhang, H., Zhang, S., Wang, P., Qin, Y., & Wang, H. (2017). Forecasting of particulate matter time series using wavelet analysis and wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model in Taiyuan, China. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 67(7), 776–788. https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2017.1292968
Zhang, J., Zhang, R., Zhao, Y., Qiu, J., Bu, S., Zhu, Y., & Li, G. (2023). Deterministic and probabilistic prediction of wind power based on a hybrid intelligent model. Energies, 16(10), 4237.
Zheng, Y., Zhu, Q., Li, G., & Xiao, Z. (2016). Hybrid quantile regression estimation for time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 78(4), 805–830.
Zhou, X., Yang, G., & Xiang, Y. (2022). Quantile-wavelet nonparametric estimates for time-varying coefficient models. Mathematics, 10(13), 2321. | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 63 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 16 |