پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 21 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 702 |
| تعداد مقالات | 10,131 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 71,419,071 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 63,141,378 |
Investigating essential factors in the spread of lassa fever dynamics through sensitivity analysis | ||
| International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications | ||
| مقاله 37، دوره 13، شماره 1، خرداد 2022، صفحه 485-497 اصل مقاله (372.48 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/ijnaa.2021.22707.2405 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Taye Samuel Faniran* 1؛ E. O. Ayoola2 | ||
| 1Department of Computer Science, Lead City University, Ibadan | ||
| 2Department of Mathematics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 01 اسفند 1399، تاریخ بازنگری: 08 تیر 1400، تاریخ پذیرش: 30 مرداد 1400 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Lassa fever is a zoonotic acute viral illness caused by Lassa virus. Since there is no vaccine yet to protect against contracting the virus, it continues to spread in West Africa. In this paper, a mathematical model of lassa transmission that considers two classes of rats: house rat and bush rat, is proposed. Theoretically, global stability of the model disease-free and endemic equilibria are established by constructing a global Lyapunov function. Sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number are derived using the normalised forward approach to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number $R_0 < 1$ and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0 > 1$. Results from sensitivity analysis reveals that rat biting rate for infectious house rats RFH and infectious bush rats R_FB, transmission probability per contact with infectious house and bush rats ($R_{FH}$ and $R_{FB}$), human recruitment rate and transmission probability per contact with infectious human hosts are highly significant in determining the severity of lassa infection. On the other hand, natural death rate of rats, natural death rate of human hosts, recovery and hospitalization rates of human hosts are critical for lassa transmission reduction. Plans that target the contact rate between house and bush rats (i.e use of indoor residual spray, fumigation of environment with pesticide) and those that target recovery rate of human hosts (i.e treatment of infectious human hosts) are recommended to control the disease. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Lassa؛ basic reproduction number؛ stability؛ sensitivity analysis | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] A. Abdulhamid, N. Hussaini, Effects of quarantine on transmission dynamics of Lassa fever, Infectious Disease of poverty, 11(1)(2006) 397-407. [2] I.S. Abdulraheem, Public health importance of lassa fever epidemiology, clinical features and current management review of literature, Afr. J. Clin. Exp Microbiol., 3(2002) 33-37. [3] F.O. Akinpelu, R. Akinwande, Mathematical model for lassa fever and sensitivity analysis, Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 5(5)(2008) 1-9. [4] L.M. Arriola, J.M. Hyman, Being sensitive to uncertainty, Journal of Computing and Engineering,9(2)(2007) 10-20. [5] M.Bawa, S. Abdulrahaman, O.R. Jimoh, Adabara Nu, Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium state of Lassa fever disease. Journal of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Education, 9(2)(2013) 115-123. [6] M.J.Buchmeier, J.C. de la Torre, C.J.Peters Arenaviridae, The viruses and their replication, Fields Virology,(2007) 1791-1827. [7] Central Intelligence Agency, World fact book for the year 2014, Retrieved on 20 February 2016 from http: // www. cia/ library/ publication/ the-worldfactbook/ geos/ ni. htm , (2015) [8] J. Davies, K. Lokuge, K.Glass, Routine and pulse vaccination for Lassa virus could reduce high levels of endemic disease: A mathematical modeling study, Vaccine, 37(26)(2019) 3451-3456.Journalhomepage:www.elsevier. com/locate/vaccine [9] K.C. Eze, T.A.T. Salami, I.C. Eze, A.E.Pogoson, N.Omodia, M.Ugochukwu, High Lassa fever activities in Northern part of Edo State, Nigeria: Re-analysis of confirmatory test result, African Journal of Health Sciences, 16(34)(2010), 52-56. [10] T.S. Faniran, A mathematical modelling of lassa fever dynamics with non-drug compliance rate, International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technonlogy, 5(47)(2017) 305–317. [11] H. Guo, M.Y. Li, Global stability in a mathematical model of tuberculosis, Canadian Applied Mathematics Quaterly, 4(2) (2006). [12] T.O.James, S.Abdulrahaman, S.Akinyemi, N.I.Akinwande, Dynamics transmission of Lassa fever disease, International Journal of Innovation and Research in Educational Sciences, 2(1)(2015) 2349-5219. [13] A.Korobeinikov, A global properties of infectious disease model with nonlinear incidence, Bulletin of Mathematical Sciences, 8(78)(2014) 3889-3904. [14] M.Y.Li, J.S. Mouldowney, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiolgy, Journal of Mathematical Biosciences, 125(1995) 155-164. [15] S.C. Nwasuka, I.E. Nwachukwu, P.C. Nwachukwu, Mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever with separation of infected individuals and treatment as control measures, Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science, 32(6)(2019) 1-15. [16] O.S. Obabiyi, A.A.Onifade, Mathematical model for Lassa fever transmission dynamics with variable human and reservoir population, International Journal of Differential Equations and Applications, 16(1)(2017) 67-91. [17] C.O.Ogabi, T.V.Olusa,M.A. Madufor, Controlling Lassa fever transmission in Northern part of Edo State, Nigeria using SIR model, New York Science Journal, 5(12)(2012) 190-197. [18] D. Okuongbe, R. Okuongbe, A mathematical model for Lassa fever, Journal of National Association of Mathematical Physics, 10(2017) 457-464. [19] S.A.Omilabu, S.O.Badaru,P. Okokhere, D. Asogun, C.Drosten, P. Emmerich, Lassa fever, Nigeria, 2003, and 2004, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 11(10)(2005) 1642-1644. [20] O. Onuorah Martins,S. Ojo Moses, J. Usman Dahiru , A. abdulkadir, Basic reproduction number for the spread and control of Lassa fever, Int. Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT),30(1) (2016) 1-7. [21] O.J. Peter, A.I. Abioye, F.A. Oguntolu, T.A. Owolabi, M.O. Ajisope, A.G. Zakari, T.G. Shaba, Modelling and optimal control analysis of Lassa fever disease, Informatics in Medicine Unlocked (Elsevier), 20(2020) 100419. [22] J.M.Rojek,S. Kunz, Cell entry by human pathogenic arenaviruses, Cell Microbol, 10(4)(2008) 828-835. [23] I.B. Sule, I.B. Wada, A.A. Abubakar et al., Outbreak of a highly virulent Lassa fever virus in Kano State, Nigeria: An investigation report 2015-2016, International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research,8(1)(2017) 613-619. [24] J. W. Ufberg, D.J.Karres, Update on emerging infections: news for the centers for disease control and prevention. Imported Lassa fever-New Jersey, 2004, Ann Emerg Med, 45(3)(2005) 323-326. [25] World Health Organization, Lassa, (2017). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 16,477 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 10,005 |
||