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ارائه مدلی به منظور ارزیابی خسارت لرزه ای خطوط لوله مدفون سوخت شهر کرمانشاه | ||
| مدل سازی در مهندسی | ||
| مقاله 3، دوره 13، شماره 41، شهریور 1394، صفحه 27-45 اصل مقاله (1.46 M) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jme.2017.1725 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| بابک امیدوار؛ محمد اسکندری* ؛ مهرداد نعیمی نصفی | ||
| دانشگاه تهران | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 09 بهمن 1395، تاریخ بازنگری: 27 شهریور 1396، تاریخ پذیرش: 09 بهمن 1395 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| شبکه خطوط لوله مدفون انتقال سوخت یکی از مهمترین شریان‌ها در زندگی شهری محسوب می شوند و نقش کلیدی در افزایش و کاهش خسارت‌های ناشی از زلزله دارند. شهر کرمانشاه دارای سه خط انتقال نفت خام و فرآورده های نفتی به پالایشگاه اصلی این شهر از مراکز انتقال خارج از شهر (نفت شهر و تنگه فنی) می-باشد، که از آنجا فرآورده های نفتی به پایانه نفتی شهر سنندج منتقل می‌شود. به منظور انجام برآورد خسارت لرزهای خطوط لوله مدفون سوخت شهر کرمانشاه، از طریق مشخصات و اطلاعات اجزای مختلف شبکه، ابتدا از طریق روابط کاهندگی مربوط به این منطقه، پارامترهای لرزه‌خیزی منطقه (PGA و PGV)، بر اساس دو سناریوی زلزلۀ محتمل تعیین می‌شود. سپس با استفاده از روابط نرخ تعمیر (Repair Rate)، به تخمین خسارت خطوط لوله پرداخته می‌شود. پس از آن به آنالیز پیامد رهایش مواد نفتی موجود در خطوط لوله پرداخته می‌شود. در این تحقیق توزیع احتمال برای مساحت منطقه تحت تاثیر آتش و انفجار، تعداد جمعیت در معرض آتش و انفجار و تعداد واحدهای در معرض آتش و انفجار پس از زلزله از طریق روش شبیه‌سازی مونته -کارلو مشخص شده است. تمام مراحل تحلیل خسارت خطوط لوله مدفون شهر، در زبان برنامه‌نویسی محیط GIS نوشته شده است. برای توصیف بهتر نتایج خروجی به ترسیم نمودارهای فراوانی تجمعی و توابع توزیع احتمال هر یک از خروجی‌ها پرداخته شده است. به طور خلاصه آسیب وارده بر خطوط لوله سوخت شهر کرمانشاه در این تحقیق برای سناریو اول، 17 نشت، 4 شکست و 21 اشتعال و برای سناریو دوم، 4 نشت، یک شکست و دو اشتعال می‌باشد. هدف از این مقاله ارائه الگوریتم کارا برای تحلیل خسارت لرزهای خطوط لوله مدفون و شروع آتش سوزی در اثر خسارت وارده به این زیرساخت می‌باشد. الگوریتم پیشنهادی برای شهر کرمانشاه به عنوان مطالعه موردی به کار گرفته شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| خطوط لوله؛ نشت؛ شکست؛ اشتعال؛ شبیه سازی مونت کارلو | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Provide a model for the seismic damage Assessment to buried fuel pipelines in Kermanshah | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Babak Omidvar؛ Mohammad Eskandari؛ Mehrdad Naeimi | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Fuel pipeline systems are one of the most important lifelines in city and have a key role in increase and decrease of damages and vulnerability to earthquake. Kermanshah has three lines for transferring oil products and crude oil into the main refinery of the city from two transfer centers out of the city, Naftshahr and Tange Fanni, from which oil products are transferred to the terminal facilities in Sanandaj. This paper, In order to assess the seismic damage to buried fuel pipelines of Kermanshah with the help of characteristics and information of network components, PGA and PGV values are initially determined for two probable scenario earthquakes in the study area, using the attenuation relations of the same area. Then, using the repair rate relations, damage to pipelines is estimated. The probability distribution function for the area, the population and the number of houses exposed to fire and explosion after the earthquake are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method through numerous repetitions All the steps of damage assessment for buried pipelines were written in a GIS environment. In order to give a better description of the output results, the probability distribution functions for each output are provided. In summary, the damage inflicted on the fuel pipelines of Kermanshah is equal to 17 leaks, 4 breaks and 21 ignitions for scenario 1 and 4 leaks, 1 break and 1 ignition for scenario 2. The purpose of this paper, an efficient algorithm present is for seismic damage analyze of buried fuel pipelines and simulating fire ignition and explosion in urban areas. The proposed algorithm for the city of Kermanshah has been used as a case study. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Pipeline, Leak, Break, Ignition, Monte Carlo simulation | ||
| مراجع | ||
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