Zamani, Mohammad, Haji, Gholamali, Fotros, Mohammad Hassan, Ghafari Ashtiani, Peyman. (1401). Modeling exchange rate and economic sanctions against Iran utilizing the Markov switching method. هنرهای کاربردی, 13(2), 1357-1366. doi: 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26470.3322
Mohammad Zamani; Gholamali Haji; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Peyman Ghafari Ashtiani. "Modeling exchange rate and economic sanctions against Iran utilizing the Markov switching method". هنرهای کاربردی, 13, 2, 1401, 1357-1366. doi: 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26470.3322
Zamani, Mohammad, Haji, Gholamali, Fotros, Mohammad Hassan, Ghafari Ashtiani, Peyman. (1401). 'Modeling exchange rate and economic sanctions against Iran utilizing the Markov switching method', هنرهای کاربردی, 13(2), pp. 1357-1366. doi: 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26470.3322
Zamani, Mohammad, Haji, Gholamali, Fotros, Mohammad Hassan, Ghafari Ashtiani, Peyman. Modeling exchange rate and economic sanctions against Iran utilizing the Markov switching method. هنرهای کاربردی, 1401; 13(2): 1357-1366. doi: 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26470.3322

Modeling exchange rate and economic sanctions against Iran utilizing the Markov switching method

International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications
مقاله 111، دوره 13، شماره 2، مهر 2022، صفحه 1357-1366    اصل مقاله (430.64 K)
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26470.3322
نویسندگان
Mohammad Zamani1؛ Gholamali Haji* 1؛ Mohammad Hassan Fotros2؛ Peyman Ghafari Ashtiani3
1Department of Economics, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran
3Department of Business Management, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
چکیده
Exchange rate stability in the market plays a key role in both competitiveness and as far as reducing economic uncertainty. The exchange rate in Iran has been fluctuating for several years now due to political factors, specifically economic sanctions. Utilizing the Markov switching method, this study has endeavoured to model the direct effects of sanctions on the exchange rate and the indirect impact of sanctions and inflation on the exchange rate between 1985-and 2021. The exchange rate in Iran is dual in nature, meaning there are two systems that govern it: 1-Characterized by low average exchange rates and high standard deviation; 2-High average inflation and low standard deviation. Hence, in this article, two models specified by Markov switching shall be used. The findings reveal the probability of staying in the low exchange rate system is higher than the probability of remaining in the high exchange rate one. In addition, the probability of transition from the low exchange rate system is higher than the opposite probability (due to the stability of the low exchange rate in the country). The findings also show that sanctions have a low and positive effect on the exchange rate. Moreover, the impact of inflation on the exchange rate is positive.
کلیدواژه‌ها
International Sanctions؛ Inflation؛ Exchange Rate؛ Iran
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