پیوندهای مفید
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 21 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 687 |
| تعداد مقالات | 9,985 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 70,959,603 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 62,423,656 |
Looking at the effects of financial cycles on the real sector of economy: An examination on the affectability of the unemployment and income inequality in Iran's economy | ||
| International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications | ||
| مقاله 259، دوره 13، شماره 2، مهر 2022، صفحه 3223-3237 اصل مقاله (581.73 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/ijnaa.2022.26651.3377 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Ali Vakili1؛ Ebrahim Rezaei* 2؛ Farhad Ghaffari1 | ||
| 1Management and Economics Faculty, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2The Institute for Research and Development in the Humanities, SAMT, Tehran, Iran | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 14 آبان 1400، تاریخ بازنگری: 28 دی 1400، تاریخ پذیرش: 22 بهمن 1400 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| The present study analyzes the effects of financial cycles and their components on the real sector of Iran’s economy and more precisely on the unemployment rate and income distribution inequality. The theoretical reason behind juxtaposing unemployment and income distribution, is the positive correlation between the two variables under the job-search models, along with their challenging and problematic natures. Employing a multiple-stage methodology, over the 1985-2020 period, this study commences with creating a time-varying index based on the “power cohesion” of dependent and independent variables and then continues by determining their joint-distribution by the Kalman-filter approach. At the second stage, it tries to find the degree of coincidence (or asynchrony) between real sector and financial-credit indices by generating a composite index consisting of cohesive joint-distributed components, yielded in the last phase. In the final phase, it benefits from non-linear models for robustness and validity checking. The results emerging from the second stage illustrate that the values indicating counter-cyclical movement (or improving) among financial cycles, on the one hand, and real sector cycles, unemployment, and Gini-Coefficient, on the other hand, are 0.61, 0.71, and 0.64, respectively. Also, there is an improvement and significant movement between credit cycles and the real sector variables. However, the significance is weak for credit cycles generated from so-called “Directed credits.” The validity of the second stage results is verified by the outcomes of the third phase using some standard and more detailed models which are estimated by non-linear methods. The third stage has considerable policy implications for decision-makers. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Financial Cycles؛ Credit cycles؛ Income inequality؛ Unemployment؛ Kalman-filter؛ Power cohesion | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1] H. Abbasinejad and Gh. Kazemizadeh, Study and determination of Phillips curve, and determination of unemployment rate in the Iranian economy, Journal of Economic Research 35 (2000), no. 2, 133–160. [2] B.A. Abrams, The effect of government size on the unemployment rate, Public Choice 99 (1999), no. 3-4, 395–401. [3] R. Akhbari and H. Amadeh, Analysis of the correlation between the unemployment rate and economic growth with the bounds test approach: Evidence from Iran’s economy, 15 (2015), no. 59, 125–160. [4] H. Amiri and E. Gorji, Estimation of Phillips curve using smooth transition regression models, Quart. Econ. Model. Res. (2011), no. 3, 169–190. [5] S. Bandyopadhyay, D. Elias and U. Bulent, Effects of credit supply on unemployment and income inequality, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Rev. 100 (2018), no. 4, 345–62. [6] S. Bartoletto, Ch. Bruno, M. Elisabetta and P. Paolo, Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013, J. Macroecon. 61 (2019), no. 585, 103–130. [7] I. Bastanifar, Time incompatibility test in Iranian economy, J. Econ. Res. 49 (2014), no. 4, 699–727. [8] M.F. Bleaney, Macroeconomic stability, investment, and growth in developing countries, J. Dev. Econ. 48 (1996), no. 2, 461–477. [9] M. Brei, F. Giovanni and G. Leonardo, Financial structure and income inequality, BIS WP/No 756, 2018. [10] L. Carvalho and C.D. Guilmi, Technological unemployment and income inequality: A stock-flow consistent agent-based approach, J. Ev. Econ. 30 (2020), no. 1, 39–73. [11] S. Claessens, M.A. Kose and M. Terrones, Financial cycles: What? How? When?, NBER Int. Seminar Macroecon. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press 7 (2011), no. 1, 303–344. [12] E. Dabla-Norris, K. Kalpana, R. Frantisek, S. Nujin and T. Evridiki, Causes and consequences of income inequality: A global perspective, International Monetary Fund, 2015. [13] A. Dehghani, S.M.H. Hosseini, M. Fattahi and S. Hekmati Farid, A study on the relationship between economic growth and income distribution in Iran during 1971-2014, An approach to nonlinear smooth transition regression, Appl. Econ. Stud. Iran 6 (2017), no. 21, 213–236. [14] N. Dromel, E. Kolakez and E. Lehmann, Credit constraints and the persistence of unemployment, Discussion paper series, IZA DP no. 4501, 2009. [15] M. Einian, F. Najafi Ziarani and A. Mahmoudzadeh, Credit cycles of Iranian economy, Monetary Bank. Res. 11 (2018), no. 38, 565–598. [16] S. Fischer, The role of macroeconomic factors in growth, Working Paper no. 4565, NBER, December 1993. [17] P.M. Garber, Famous first bubbles: The fundamentals of early manias, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000. [18] A. Garshasbi and M. Yousefi Dindarlou, A study on the effects of international sanctions on Iran’s macroeconomic variables, Quarterly of Economic Modeling Research (2016), no. 25, Fall 2016, 130-182. [19] J. Hamilton, Time series analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1994. [20] A.C. Harvey and T.M. Trimbur, General model-based filters for extracting cycles and trends in economic time series, Rev. Econ. Statist. 85 (2003), no. 2, 244–255. [21] K. Herkenhoff, The impact of consumer credit access on unemployment, NBER Working Paper no. 25187, 2018. [22] D. Holl´o, M. Kremer and M. Lo Duca, CISS- A composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system, ECB Working Paper Series 1426, 2012. [23] J. Hosseinzadeh-Neyestani, K. Hojabr-Kiani, T. Rahmani and M. Mehrara, Investigating the impact of the economic growth rate on the actual and NAIRU unemployment in Iran’s provinces, Macroecon. Res. Lett. 14 (2020), no. 28, 61–84. [24] K. Hubrich, A. D’Agostino, M. Cervena, M. Ciccarelli, P. Guarda, M. Haavio, P. Jeanfils, C. Mendicino, E. Ortega, M. T. Valderrama and M. Valentinyin´e Endr´esz, Financial shocks and the macroeconomy, ECB Occasional Paper, no. 143, 2013. [25] G. Khalesi and Kh. Piraei, The relationship between economic growth and income inequality among provinces of Iran, Quart. Econ. Res. 16 (2016), no. 2, 155–171. [26] N. Khiabani, Policies for reducing labor market non-equilibrium and increasing economic growth in Iran, Sci. J. Strategy 20 (2001), 78–96. [27] S.J. Koopman, N. Shephard and J.A. Doornik, Statistical algorithms for models in state space form: Ssfpack 3.0., Timberlake Consultants Ltd, 2008. [28] H.M. Krolzig, Markov-switching vector autoregressions: Modelling, statistical inference, and application to business cycle analysis, 454, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2013. [29] H.M. Krolzig, Econometric modelling of Markov-switching vector autoregressions using MSVAR for Ox, Discussion Paper, University of Oxford, 1998. [30] Y. Nademi and H. Sedaghat-Kalmarzi, Investigating the effect of oil shocks and economic sanctions on unemployment regimes in Iran using the Markov switching approach, 7 (2018), no. 26, 131–156. [31] F. Nili and A. Mahmoudzadeh, Business and credit cycles, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Policy Paper, 93015, 2014. [32] R.P. Cysne and D. Turchick, Equilibrium unemployment-inequality correlation, J. Macroecon. 34 (2012), no. 2, 454–469. [33] R.P. Cysne, On the positive correlation between income inequality and unemployment, Rev. Econ. Statist. 91 (2009), no. 1, 218–226. [34] Y. Sch¨uler, P. Hiebert and T. Peltonen, Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach, ECB Working Paper, 2015. [35] A. Seifi-Kashki, S.J. Mohseni-Zanouzi and A. Rezazadeh, A study on the relationship between credit cycles and business cycles in Iranian economy, Econ. Growth Dev. Res. 20 (2020), no. 3, 1–32. [36] F. Soleimani, M. Shahiki Tash, G. Zamaniyan and R. Zamani, The effect of the financial cycles on the business cycles in Iran based on Bayesian averaging approach, J. Econ. Stud. Polic. 7 (2020), no. 2, 215–238. [37] V. Cuciniello and N. di Iasio, Determinants of the credit cycle: Flow analysis of the extensive margin, ESRB: Working Paper Series 2021/125, Available at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3924740. [38] M. Waez Barzani and B. Ebrahimi, Theoretical analysis of the impact of unrealistic values on the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, Research Institute of Hawzah and University, First Edition, Qom, 2015. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 44,339 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 50,507 |
||