Rahimi, Mohammad Jawad, Kaiwaan, Abdulhai, Anwari, Shamsullah, Azimi, Sayed Javid, Rezaie, Zaher. (1405). Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan). هنرهای کاربردی, 14(2), -. doi: 10.22075/jrce.2025.2354
Mohammad Jawad Rahimi; Abdulhai Kaiwaan; Shamsullah Anwari; Sayed Javid Azimi; Zaher Rezaie. "Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)". هنرهای کاربردی, 14, 2, 1405, -. doi: 10.22075/jrce.2025.2354
Rahimi, Mohammad Jawad, Kaiwaan, Abdulhai, Anwari, Shamsullah, Azimi, Sayed Javid, Rezaie, Zaher. (1405). 'Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)', هنرهای کاربردی, 14(2), pp. -. doi: 10.22075/jrce.2025.2354
Rahimi, Mohammad Jawad, Kaiwaan, Abdulhai, Anwari, Shamsullah, Azimi, Sayed Javid, Rezaie, Zaher. Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan). هنرهای کاربردی, 1405; 14(2): -. doi: 10.22075/jrce.2025.2354

Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Kunduz Airport (Afghanistan)

Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering
دوره 14، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 42، تابستان 2026    اصل مقاله (1.45 M)
نوع مقاله: Regular Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22075/jrce.2025.2354
نویسندگان
Mohammad Jawad Rahimi1؛ Abdulhai Kaiwaan2؛ Shamsullah Anwari3؛ Sayed Javid Azimi2؛ Zaher Rezaie* 4
1Ph.D. Student, Department of Structural Engineering, Afghan International Islamic University, Kabul, Afghanistan
2Ph.D., Department of Structural Engineering, Afghan International Islamic University, Kabul, Afghanistan
3Head of the Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Badakhshan University, Kabul, Afghanistan
4Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Kateb University, Kabul, Afghanistan
چکیده
This study presents the first site-specific seismic hazard assessment of Kunduz Airport, a critical infrastructure located in the seismically active Alpine–Himalayan belt of northeastern Afghanistan. Both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are employed to estimate peak ground acceleration (PGA), incorporating historical and instrumental seismicity data, regional tectonic frameworks, and local soil conditions (Vs30 = 250–300 m/s). The analysis utilizes regionally calibrated ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from the NGA-West2 suite within a logic-tree framework to account for epistemic uncertainties. The PSHA results yield a median PGA of 0.411g for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period ~2475 years), while the DSHA indicates a maximum PGA of 0.41g, primarily governed by the Chaman fault. The Central Badakhshan and Takhar faults are also identified as major seismic sources contributing to site hazard. A comparative evaluation of international seismic design codes (Iranian Standard 2800, ASCE 7-16, Eurocode 8) reveals notable discrepancies in spectral acceleration and base shear values, emphasizing the necessity of local code calibration for performance-based design (PBD) of essential facilities in Afghanistan. Unlike previous regional studies such as Bakhshi et al. (2025), this research incorporates updated GMPE logic trees, nonlinear soil classification, and direct code-spectrum comparisons, offering a robust and localized hazard framework. The results contribute to seismic code development and risk mitigation planning for vital transportation infrastructure in Afghanistan.

تازه های تحقیق
  • PSHA shows higher seismic hazard than DSHA for Kunduz Airport.
  • Dual-method analysis assesses crucial infrastructure in a risky zone.
  • Findings reveal discrepancies with current international design codes.
  • Provides data for Afghanistan’s new seismic code development.
  • Hazard model validated by regional historical data.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Seismic hazard analysis؛ Kunduz Airport؛ Deterministic approach؛ Probabilistic approach؛ Peak ground acceleration؛ Seismic risk mitigation
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